Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.683393e-05 0.000092 0.000108 0.000126 0.000147 0.000169 0.000194
2025-02-02 5.792939e-05 0.000078 0.000101 0.000130 0.000163 0.000201 0.000246
2025-02-09 4.665561e-05 0.000068 0.000095 0.000128 0.000170 0.000217 0.000276
2025-02-16 3.975105e-05 0.000063 0.000093 0.000133 0.000183 0.000242 0.000317
2025-02-23 3.375834e-05 0.000058 0.000090 0.000134 0.000191 0.000260 0.000348
2025-03-02 2.638062e-05 0.000050 0.000082 0.000129 0.000190 0.000267 0.000366
2025-03-09 2.081317e-05 0.000043 0.000076 0.000124 0.000189 0.000273 0.000383
2025-03-16 1.721828e-05 0.000039 0.000072 0.000123 0.000193 0.000285 0.000407
2025-03-23 1.457203e-05 0.000036 0.000070 0.000123 0.000199 0.000298 0.000433
2025-03-30 1.199306e-05 0.000032 0.000067 0.000122 0.000202 0.000308 0.000455
2025-04-06 9.456750e-06 0.000028 0.000062 0.000118 0.000202 0.000314 0.000471
2025-04-13 7.723458e-06 0.000026 0.000059 0.000117 0.000204 0.000324 0.000492
2025-04-20 5.270668e-06 0.000021 0.000053 0.000111 0.000201 0.000327 0.000506
2025-04-27 4.209860e-06 0.000019 0.000052 0.000113 0.000209 0.000346 0.000543
2025-05-04 3.164210e-06 0.000017 0.000050 0.000112 0.000214 0.000360 0.000573
2025-05-11 2.628016e-06 0.000016 0.000050 0.000116 0.000225 0.000383 0.000615
2025-05-18 2.039732e-06 0.000015 0.000049 0.000117 0.000232 0.000401 0.000651
2025-05-25 1.241404e-06 0.000012 0.000044 0.000112 0.000229 0.000404 0.000665
2025-06-01 7.236658e-07 0.000010 0.000041 0.000108 0.000227 0.000407 0.000680
2025-06-08 4.558217e-07 0.000009 0.000039 0.000107 0.000230 0.000419 0.000707
2025-06-15 2.915671e-07 0.000008 0.000038 0.000107 0.000235 0.000433 0.000738
2025-06-22 1.573618e-07 0.000007 0.000036 0.000106 0.000238 0.000444 0.000763
2025-06-29 6.152065e-08 0.000006 0.000033 0.000103 0.000237 0.000449 0.000781